![]() ![]() An example: In 2011 at Wisconsin, Russell Wilson had a raw completion percentage of 73 percent. When we make these adjustments, and then subtract expected completion percentage from a QB’s actual completion percentage, we get a new metric: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE. We should boost players from conferences where it is tougher to complete a pass and ding players whose numbers are generated in conferences where passing is easier. For instance, passes in the Big Ten are completed at a lower rate than in the Big 12 and the Pac-12. ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating does this, and we’re doing it, too. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes - and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently - you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.Īnother important adjustment is to account for the level of competition a player faced. These two metrics can be combined 3 to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. “Share predicted” here refers to the amount of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable in a bivariate regression. Share of NFL quarterback performance predicted by college performance in seven measures, 2011-18įor players who attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL. Completion percentage translates from college to the NFL ![]() But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool. The metric’s shortcomings - players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance - are well-known. Still, there are solid reasons to be excited about Murray.Ĭompletion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. If some of the world’s best football talent evaluators are convinced that Murray’s height is at least a minor red flag, how can we be confident that a 5-foot-10 college QB will be productive in the NFL? When it comes to the draft, deep humility is warranted. It wasn’t just Browns fans who were high on Johnny Manziel - many predictive performance metrics liked him as well. Like the rest of the league, practitioners of analytics have a pretty poor track record at predicting QB success. While some scouts and NFL decision makers think Murray’s odds for NFL success are long - or have him off their draft boards entirely because of his lack of size - there is strong evidence in the form of metrics and models that he is actually a good bet to succeed. Murray, listed at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, is 7 inches shorter and more than 40 pounds lighter than Allen, and he’s the the smallest top QB prospect in recent memory. This year, when Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray decided to forgo a career in baseball for a chance to become a top pick in the 2019 NFL draft, his measurables captured attention in a different way. Last year, much of the pre-draft speculation surrounded where current Buffalo Bills starting QB Josh Allen - who is tall and can hit an upright from his knees from 50 yards away - would be selected. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills, 1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored 2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.Īll of this uncertainty makes the NFL draft extremely exciting: You never know for certain who will be good and who will be an absolute bust. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers - the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation - have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback. ![]()
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